Investment research and advisory firm Afrinvest has raised doubts over President Bola Tinubu’s bold projection that Nigeria’s economy will expand fourfold to $1 trillion by 2030, warning that inflationary pressures, weak oil output, and structural power sector problems could derail the plan.

At the BRICS summit in Brazil, Tinubu projected that Nigeria’s real GDP growth would hit 7 per cent by 2027, with nominal GDP quadrupling from its current $251 billion to $1 trillion by the end of the decade. His optimism was anchored on Nigeria’s recent GDP rebasing and the administration’s sweeping reforms since mid-2023.

Afrinvest, however, argued in its latest report that the assumptions underpinning the forecast lack “fundamental drivers.” While the rebased figures improved Nigeria’s fiscal outlook lifting 2024 nominal GDP to ₦372.8 trillion and reducing the debt-to-GDP ratio to 39.6 per cent exchange rate depreciation has cut the dollar equivalent of the economy in half compared with pre-reform levels.

“The President’s call for a 7.0 per cent GDP growth by 2027 and the quadrupling of GDP to $1.0 trillion by 2030 lacks fundamental drivers,” the firm noted.

According to Afrinvest, growth in 2024 stood at 3.8 per cent, the second-highest since 2014, but still far from the pace required to achieve Tinubu’s target. Projections from the IMF and World Bank also place Nigeria’s growth at an average of 3.4–3.8 per cent between 2025 and 2027.

While acknowledging gains from reforms such as the removal of petrol subsidies, FX liberalisation, and improved revenue mobilisation that lifted government receipts by more than 120 per cent in 2024 Afrinvest warned that persistent inflation, weak power supply, and stagnant oil production continue to weigh heavily on the economy.

It stressed that to achieve the $1 trillion target, Nigeria’s nominal GDP must exceed $800 billion by 2026, requiring no less than 40 per cent growth in both 2025 and 2026. Alternatively, the naira would need to strengthen significantly to below ₦500/$ from 2027 onwards, an outlook analysts deem improbable under current conditions.

Afrinvest recommended that the government deepen structural reforms, including raising oil output to 2 million barrels per day, implementing cost-reflective electricity tariffs with targeted subsidies, stabilising the FX market, reforming the tax system, and prioritising food security through agricultural and safety net interventions.