By Micah Eradiri
Nigeria prides itself on being Africa’s most populous nation. Depending on the source, its population is estimated at well over 200 million, with some projections placing it much higher. Yet, beneath these impressive figures lies an uncomfortable truth: nobody knows with certainty how many Nigerians there are.
The country’s last national population and housing census was conducted in 2006, returning an official figure of 140.4 million people. Twenty years later, that figure remains an important baseline for demographic projections used in planning schools, hospitals, roads, housing, security, and social services. For a nation that has witnessed rapid urban growth, widespread internal migration, insurgency, and significant demographic change, relying on such an old census is neither prudent nor sustainable.
Nigeria’s census history demonstrates that the country understands the importance of counting its people, even if politics has often complicated the exercise. National censuses were conducted in 1952/53, 1963, 1991, and 2006, recording populations of approximately 31.6 million, 55.7 million, 89 million, and 140.4 million, respectively. The 1962 and 1973 exercises also deserve mention, although their results were rejected. While census-taking has historically generated political controversy, these exercises reflect the country’s longstanding recognition of the importance of demographic information. Since 2006, however, the cycle has been broken.
International best practice recommends that countries conduct a population census at least every ten years. By that standard, Nigeria should have conducted another census around 2016 and should now be undertaking another. Instead, the country has gone two decades without a fresh national headcount.
There was genuine optimism that this anomaly would finally be corrected in 2023. The National Population Commission had undertaken extensive preparations for a census scheduled for May 3 to 7, 2023. The exercise promised to leverage digital technology and geospatial mapping to produce a more credible population count. However, shortly before it was due to commence, the federal government postponed it, leaving the incoming administration to determine a new date.
Three years later, the urgency has only intensified. Political attention is increasingly concentrated on the 2027 general elections. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has already published a revised electoral timetable, scheduling the presidential and National Assembly elections for January 16, 2027, and the governorship and State Houses of Assembly elections for February 6, 2027. These dates provide political parties, candidates, and electoral institutions with a definite planning horizon.
Yet, while the nation knows when it will elect its next set of leaders, it still lacks a comparably definite date for counting the people those leaders will govern. This raises an uncomfortable but necessary question: When exactly will Nigeria conduct its next census?
This question extends far beyond statistics. Population figures inform how governments allocate resources, where hospitals are built, how many classrooms are required, the scale of transportation infrastructure needed, and the distribution of public investment. Without reliable demographic information, governments risk making decisions based on projections that may not adequately reflect changing realities.
Fiscal federalism also depends on credible population data. Although revenue allocation involves multiple variables, population remains an important consideration in intergovernmental resource distribution. When population figures become outdated, governments risk making consequential financial decisions based on demographic assumptions that no longer reflect actual needs.
The consequences are particularly visible in Nigeria’s rapidly expanding cities. Lagos, Abuja, Kano, Port Harcourt, Ibadan, and numerous other urban centres have experienced significant growth since 2006. New communities have emerged, informal settlements have expanded, and demand for housing, healthcare, transportation, education, electricity, and water has increased. Yet policymakers must continue to rely heavily on projections rather than recent census figures.
Beyond domestic governance, credible population data is essential to investment decisions and international development. Investors use demographic information to assess market opportunities, while development partners rely on population statistics to design interventions and distribute resources. Without a recent census, the uncertainty surrounding population estimates becomes an additional challenge to effective planning.
Admittedly, conducting a census in Nigeria is no simple undertaking. Historical controversies surrounding population figures, political representation, and resource allocation remain legitimate concerns. Security challenges and logistical constraints further complicate the exercise. However, these difficulties should strengthen the case for careful preparation, transparent methodology, adequate funding, and independent verification rather than justify indefinite postponement.
Elections are indispensable to democracy, but so is the capacity to govern effectively between electoral cycles. Nigeria has demonstrated its ability to establish and maintain an electoral timetable. It must now demonstrate comparable commitment to developing a credible census timetable.
Twenty years after the last census, Nigeria cannot continue to substitute population projections for a national headcount indefinitely. The country needs a clear commitment, adequate institutional support, and a credible timeline for its next census.
After all, what does it say about our national priorities when we know precisely when we will count our votes, but cannot say when we will count our people?
Micah Eradiri is a Nigerian public policy researcher and public administration professional with an MPA from Northern Illinois University. He is currently pursuing a Master of Public Policy at Penn State University, where he serves as a Graduate Research Assistant. A former ICMA Local Government Management Fellow, his work and research focus on municipal governance, public sector innovation, institutional reform, and evidence-based policymaking in Nigeria and the United States.